Common Approach to Measuring Uncertainty in Capital Planning
Abstract
Planning investment in assets inevitably requires assumptions to be made about the future. However, in many cases, there is significant uncertainty around these assumption s and this feeds through into uncertainty around the costs and benefits of interventions and ultimately uncertainty around expenditure requirements and service/outcome performance. This project developed a transparent framework that companies can use for estimating and managing uncertainties in investment planning to enable robust decision making.
In addition to the final report, three fictional case studies are provided that demonstrate the framework. These case studies are in Excel format and are posted below, under Case Studies. (*Please note that although the report references four case studies, only three were completed).
Research Partner: UKWIR. Published in 2013.
Resources
Case Study 1 - Pipe Repair Costs
This Excel spreadsheet contains data on a fictional case study. It investigates the repair cost and burst profile for a company's pipes over a five-year period. The ultimate aim of...
Case Study 3 - Water Supply Options
This Excel spreadsheet contains data on a fictional case study. It considers the scenario of a water company facing a deficit in the water supply in the next five years...
Case Study 4 - Combine Results
This Excel spreadsheet contains data on a fictional case study. This case study combines the costs of the other case studies to understand uncertainty at the program level. This is...
